Sizing up a Pacers / Heat Eastern Conference Finals

Pacers forward Danny Granger (right) confronts Heat forward LeBron James (left).

By Jon R. LaFollette

All season long, NBA pundits, commentators and fans have speculated about one question.

Who can contend with the Miami Heat?

In the Western Conference it's a short list. Only Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Memphis have the size, depth and talent to thwart LeBron and company's quest for a repeat.

In an Eastern Conference without Derrick Rose, Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum and Rajon Rondo, many have simply ceded the conference title to Miami. And who wouldn't? The Heat's roster sports three of the top 50 players in the league - including the best player in the world who has been typically unstoppable and magnificent for much of this season. Just to wow you for a moment, here is LeBron's stat line for this season:

27 p/g 7 ass/g 8 reb/g 2 stl/g 56% FG 41% 3P 75% FT  

He's nearly averaging a triple-double and shooting lights out while carrying himself as if he were on cruise control. The scariest thought? He could get even better. 

Remember the onset of this season when it was a three dog race for the MVP between LeBron, Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony (CARMELO FRIGGIN' ANTHONY?!)?

No more.

Anthony has regressed to his ball-hogging and empty-shooting ways, and Durant, while spectacular in his own right (averaging an all too quite 29 p/g 5 ass/g 8 reb/g 2 stl/g and 1 blk/g) hasn't been quite as dominant the way LeBron has been this season. For now, this is King James' league, and everyone else simply exists in it.

However, as the Pacers and Knicks - two contenders in the East - have proven, Miami is certainly vulnerable and not without their weaknesses. The Heat are a combined 1-4 against the two teams, who currently sit at second and third in the conference respectively. 

In those losses, the Heat allowed Indiana and New York to shoot a combined 45 percent from 3-point land and were out-rebounded by a combined margin of -31, the result of playing small ball against teams with formidable bigs.

Yet, despite their average 3-point defense (ranked 20th) and their lackluster rebounding, they still generate almost nine steals per game, and hold opponents to just 44 percent shooting (7th in the league) by hounding the paint and making it difficult for opposing teams to get to the rim.

Offensively, the Heat are simple to break down. Penetrate the lane, and kick the ball out for open threes. But when your team features some of the best at driving to the basket and a crew full of sharpshooters, your simplicity almost becomes unstoppable. Currently, Miami is shooting a league best 49 percent from the floor and a third best 38 percent from behind the arch.

To give Miami fits, let alone beat them in a seven game series, is an arduous task. But, with the right pieces and style of play, it's certainly not impossible. And while the Knicks have stomped LeBron twice this season, they have cooled after their hot start. A team who lives by the jumper, dies by the jumper.

Boston? Too old and too hurt.

Chicago? Stunted offensively without Rose (who wouldn't even be at 100 percent were he to come back from his ACL injury).

Brooklyn? Too streaky and too untested.

Atlanta? Josh Smith has mentally checked out.

Milwaukee? Please.

Of all the Eastern Conference playoff hopefuls, only the Pacers possess the proper mixture of talent, fearlessness and mojo to usurp the throne from the Heat.

Defensively, the Pacers are every bit as feisty and disruptive as their South Beach rivals. Anchored by Roy Hibbert in the post (who is slowly waking up offensively after a rather dormant year) and Paul George's perimeter D, Indiana lays claim to the NBA’s best field goal percentage defense - holding their opponents to a paltry 42 percent from the floor.

In the two games between the teams this season (both occurring at Bankers Life Fieldhouse), Miami was outscored 189-166. Their high-flying offense was grounded, as they went 61-for-138 from the floor, barely scraping 44 percent shooting. They also got nothing from key reserves in Shane Battier, Mike Miller and Ray Allen - who shot a combined 4-for-17 for three. The long-distance firing squad was neutralized by Indy's league-leading three point defense.

Just to break things down visually, here are some charts which better illustrate how effective and stingy the Pacers defense has been against Miami. 

Miami's FG% at the rim when Paul George is on the court.  

When Paul George is on the court, the Heat see a seven percent decrease in successful shots taken at the rim - a shot which Miami prefers more than any other team. The chart also shows a ten percent decrease in the effectiveness of Miami's mid-range offense (section C) and a four percent decrease in above the break threes (section E). This chart shows just how versatile George is as a defender - almost as versatile as LeBron. 

Miami's FG% at the rim when Roy Hibbert is on the court.

When Roy Hibbert is on the court, Miami's offensive productivity in the restricted area plummets fifteen percent. For perspective, Brook Lopez causes a ten percent decrease, both Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka cause just a three percent decrease. Dwight Howard? A six percent increase. Only Milwaukee's Larry Sanders did a better job of defending the rim against Miami, causing a 21 percent decrease. For all of the criticism the Big Dawg has taken this year for his lackluster offensive output, his defensive capabilities have reached new heights. If Hibbert won't win defensive player of the year, he absolutely has to be in the conversation, and be considered for an All Defensive Team honor. 

Miami's Corner 3P% when George Hill is on the court

This chart is perhaps the most interesting because it shows George Hill's ability to defend the three from every angle on the court. Against Hill, Miami's perimeter shooting suffers tremendously. A solid core of shooters is rendered almost useless, stunting Miami's limited offensive schemes. Give credit to Hill's length and quickness, which causes trouble for a slower, less agile Miami team. 

Now, if you're like me, you may be pointing to section B of every chart and noticing an increase in successful shots taken in in the paint. However, if a team can't hit from long range or get to the rim with as much success, settling for floaters and short-range jumpers is the next best option. While certainly a cause for concern, I'm hard-pressed to believe a seven game series can be won on floaters alone. 

However, the Pacers are not without their weaknesses as well. As stated earlier, Indy has yet to face LeBron on his home court, where he's 26-3, and the Pacers road woes have been well documented this season. They are currently 13-16 away from the Fieldhouse and are the only division leading team to sport a losing road record.

Outside of the Circle City, the only consistent contributor in the Pacers starting lineup has been David West, whose numbers actually increase on the road. Every other starter sees their scoring, percentages and other stats decrease. Paul George shoots a rather Rudy Gay-esque 38 percent in opposing arenas. 

Another cause for concern has been the bench, which has been every bit as anemic as last year's unit. 

Tyler Hansbrough's jumper is busted (seriously, it looks like he's slinging the ball with such tenacity, it's as if the backboard is a pictiure of Coach K stabbing his mother).

D.J. Augustin, while improved since being relegated to the bench, is oftentimes invisible on the court. 

Orlando Johnson's been nice in spurts, but I'm not trusting a rookie to suddenly contribute in the playoffs. 

Gerald Green is as basketball-illiterate as he is physically gifted. 

Ian Mahinmi is certainly nice, but he's not quite the rim protector his 6-foot-11-inch frame allows him to be. 

And whose to say the Pacers ever get to the Eastern Conference finals? Brooklyn poses a tough match up. Ditto for the Bulls even without Rose (credit coach Tom Thibodeau). Boston is a wounded animal, but a wounded animal is still dangerous. If the Knicks get hot from long range, their as lethal as they come, and even Atlanta is prone to giving the Pacers fits. 

But perhaps the biggest question mark surrounding Indy's pursuit for a title is the enigmatic status of Danny Granger, who recently reaggravated the same left knee which has caused him to miss much of the season. Without making a deal to acquire J.J. Redick, Kyle Korver or another shooter at the trade deadline, the team hedged all their bets on a healthy Granger contributing. 

Brief aside: Am I the only one concerned about the long-term prognosis of Granger? At the moment, he's a jump shooter who can't jump (or even shoot). And if his knee still can't recover after a platelet-rich injection and three months of inaction, then what? Surgery? And wouldn't that possibly mean another lost year? At that point he'd be a 31-year-old player who hadn't had a decent season in two years.The pessimist in me is almost certain this is the beginning of the end of employee #33's career, as a Pacer, as a basketball player period. 

A big indicator as to what the Pacers will be able to accomplish against the Heat this coming May (assuming they meet) arrives on March 10, when they make their first appearance at American Airlines Arena. Should the blue and gold win, or lose in a highly contested game, true belief in the team's postseason chances can be justified. Should they lose in disastrous fashion, or Paul George or Roy Hibbert get manhandled, then skepticism will remain, and with good reason. A King never gives up the crown. Often times, it takes a war.